Prioritizing Social Risk in Bangladesh’s Frozen Shrimp Export Chain: A Policy-Augmented, Stage-Differentiated Screening Social Life Cycle Assessment, 2013 and 2022

Abstract

Purpose — This paper locates where social risk concentrates along Bangladesh's frozen shrimp export chain, how that profile shifted from 2013 to 2022, and where vulnerability meets weak governance. Design/methodology/approach — A descriptive-comparative screening social life cycle assessment (sLCA) spans six cradle-to-export-gate stages. Social Hotspot Scores from four ILOSTAT labor indicators are export-exposure weighted using WITS mirror-trade flows, adjusted by a Policy Response Capacity Index coded from USDOL narratives, with an exploratory Ward-clustering check. Findings — Processing and freezing records the highest raw hotspot in both years (SHS = 85.27 in 2013 and 56.00 in 2022), despite the anticipated vulnerability of upstream informal interfaces. All stages decline unevenly, reordering the stage ranking, and the observed shift is driven chiefly by child-related rather than adult labor indicators. Exposure weighting elevates export-linked stages. After governance adjustment, policy priority shifts away from the processing node toward weakly governed upstream and logistics interfaces; the Critical residual-risk category contains three stages in both years, with grow-out farming replaced by export logistics in 2022. Research limitations/implications — Sectoral proxies rank relative risk without verifying firm-level conditions; the contrast is descriptive, not causal, requiring worker-level validation and longer panels. Practical implications — The residual-risk map turns sLCA into a sourcing instrument, redirecting assurance and supplier-development effort from the audited processing node toward the upstream and logistics interfaces. Social implications — Priority should follow residual risk, not raw hotspots: extending inspection into informal handling, reactivating child-labor remediation, and formalizing pond-side interfaces protect least-protected workers. Originality/value — Integrating stage-resolved social hotspots, export exposure, and producing-country governance into one residual-risk classification positions sLCA as the diagnostic layer socially sustainable supply chain management presupposes but rarely obtains.